GrayZone

Methodology

Sources & Methodology

Provenance tagging system

Every incident, casualty figure, and territorial claim on this site carries a visible tag indicating the type of source behind it:

Government claimNGO / trackerAcademic / researchIndependent journalismMilitant claim — unverifiedSocial media — unverified

Where multiple sources report different figures for the same event, all reported figures are shown side by side — never silently averaged or picked without disclosure.

Inclusion criteria

A recorded incident requires: a specific date (or a disclosed date range/approximation), a specific location resolvable to at least state + LGA, at least one named source with a publish date, and an original-words summary (no verbatim reproduction of source article text).

Registered sources

ACAPS
Academic / research
ACLED
Event-level backbone; not yet wired into automated ingestion.
NGO / tracker
Adamawa State Government
Official Adamawa State Government website.
Government claim
Africa Defense Forum
US Africa Command-affiliated defense trade publication.
Independent journalism
Airspace Africa
Independent journalism
Al Jazeera
International outlet.
Independent journalism
Amnesty International
NGO / tracker
Army Recognition
Independent journalism
Blueprint Newspapers
Nigerian daily newspaper.
Independent journalism
Budget Office of the Federation (Nigeria)
Government claim
BudgIT Foundation
NGO / tracker
BusinessDay Nigeria
Nigerian business/current-affairs newspaper.
Independent journalism
Channels Television
Major Nigerian broadcast news outlet.
Independent journalism
Council on Foreign Relations
US foreign-policy think tank; publishes analysis and incident writeups, not a live tracker.
NGO / tracker
CSIS
US think tank.
Academic / research
Daily Post Nigeria
Nigerian digital newspaper.
Independent journalism
Daily Trust
Nigerian daily newspaper, strong Northern Nigeria coverage.
Independent journalism
Dataphyte
NGO / tracker
DefenceWeb
Independent journalism
Defense Mirror
Independent journalism
Defense News
Independent journalism
FDD's Long War Journal
Independent journalism
Federal Ministry of Defence (Nigeria)
Official Nigerian Ministry of Defence website.
Government claim
FlightGlobal
Independent journalism
France 24
International outlet.
Independent journalism
Global Defense Corp
Defense trade press.
Independent journalism
Global Upfront
Independent journalism
GovConWire
Independent journalism
HumAngle
Nigerian outlet specializing in Northeast conflict reporting.
Independent journalism
IISS Military Balance
Defence-budget-specific analysis.
Academic / research
Independent Newspaper Nigeria
Nigerian daily newspaper.
Independent journalism
Institute for Security Studies (ISS Africa)
Academic / research
International Centre for Investigative Reporting (ICIR)
Independent journalism
IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM)
UN-affiliated field survey program; periodic 'round' reports, not a continuous feed. Northeast rounds track Boko Haram/ISWAP-driven displacement; separate North-Central/North-West rounds (started later, ~2023) track banditry-driven displacement -- the two series aren't directly comparable in start date or methodology.
NGO / tracker
Katsina State Government
State-level official statements.
Government claim
Leadership (Nigeria)
Independent journalism
Military Africa
Independent journalism
MilitaryLeak
Independent journalism
Modern Ghana
Independent journalism
Multinational Joint Task Force (official)
Official site of the MNJTF (Benin/Cameroon/Chad/Nigeria military coalition against Boko Haram/ISWAP) -- treated as a government/official-body source, not independent journalism.
Government claim
National Assembly of Nigeria (via NALTF)
Legislative tracking of federal budget approvals.
Government claim
Nigerian Air Force (official)
Official Nigerian Air Force website.
Government claim
Nigerian Army (official)
Official Nigerian Army website.
Government claim
Nigerian Defence Headquarters
Official military claims.
Government claim
Nigerian Tribune
Nigerian daily newspaper.
Independent journalism
OpenStreetMap / Nominatim (facility geocoding)
Academic / research
Overt Defense
Independent journalism
Political Geography Now
Independent journalism
Premium Times
Nigerian digital newspaper.
Independent journalism
Punch
Major Nigerian daily newspaper.
Independent journalism
Quwa
Independent journalism
Reuters
International wire service.
Independent journalism
Shephard Media
Independent journalism
SIPRI Military Expenditure Database
Academic / research
The Aviationist
Independent journalism
The Defense Post
Independent journalism
The Guardian (Nigeria)
Major Nigerian daily newspaper.
Independent journalism
The Nation (Nigeria)
Nigerian daily newspaper.
Independent journalism
The Soufan Center
Security research organisation.
Academic / research
The Washington Post
US international outlet.
Independent journalism
TheCable
Nigerian digital newspaper.
Independent journalism
U.S. News & World Report
US outlet.
Independent journalism
UNHCR
NGO / tracker
Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)
Peer-reviewed academic conflict event dataset. Each row cites the press report(s) its coders used, but UCDP does not republish live article URLs -- the original press citation text is preserved in each incident's citation note instead of a clickable link.
Academic / research
US Africa Command (AFRICOM)
Government claim
Vanguard
Major Nigerian daily newspaper.
Independent journalism
Wikipedia (Nigerian military equipment lists)
Used ONLY for the equipment roster (current fleet composition), by explicit site-owner exception -- Wikipedia aggregates many underlying sources and tracks delivered-vs-ordered status better than any single press article for this specific purpose. Not used as a citation anywhere else on this site. Figures are Wikipedia's own compiled estimates, not independently verified line by line; treat as a reasonable starting point, not an authoritative headcount.
NGO / tracker

Changelog

Data correction changelog (backed by the data_corrections table) renders here once the admin tooling in Phase 5 is built.